At ACME College students concentrate in one of three areas: pre-med,
pre-law, or theater-arts. Only 15% of the students are theater-arts majors, with the remaining population divided equally among pre-med and pre-law. The most popular intramural sport at this college is ultimate frisbee, but participation differs between concentrations. Only 10% of pre-med students play on a frisbee squad, while 20% of pre-law students do, and 80% of theater-arts students do.
Suppose someone in your study group shows up wearing an ultimate frisbee t- shirt with ACME’s logo on it (which you take as certain evidence that she played ultimate frisbee while at ACME). What is the probability that this student was a theater-arts major?
Group of answer choices